Anchoring Effect
A random wheel-of-fortune spin changes your estimate of how many African nations are in the UN. The spin was meaningless. The effect was real. Why?
19746 min read
102 paradoxes, laws, and effects — from a puzzle told 2,500 years ago to a principle coined last decade. Each one starts as a story anyone can follow and goes as deep as you care to take it.
Famous for a reason. Any of these is a good first door.
A random wheel-of-fortune spin changes your estimate of how many African nations are in the UN. The spin was meaningless. The effect was real. Why?
19746 min read
If you collapse on a busy street, your chances of getting help may be worse than on a quiet one. Why does a crowd of witnesses make you less safe?
19688 min read
A hotel with infinitely many rooms is completely full. At two in the morning, one more guest arrives. The manager finds them a room.
1924 (lectures), 1947 (popularised)13 min read
A pattern that held for fifty years: every two years, computers got twice as powerful for the same price. What happens when it stops?
19657 min read
When two explanations fit the evidence equally, which should you believe? The one that assumes less.
c. 13206 min read
80% of results come from 20% of effort. 80% of bugs from 20% of code. Is this a law of nature, or a coincidence with a catchy ratio?
18966 min read
Heuristics and principles durable enough to earn a name.
A pattern that held for fifty years: every two years, computers got twice as powerful for the same price. What happens when it stops?
19657 min read
If anything can go wrong, will it? The saying is a joke — but the engineering principle behind it is dead serious.
19497 min read
Give yourself a week for a task that takes an hour, and it will take a week. Why does work expand to fill available time?
19556 min read
Named phenomena where reality behaves differently than expected.
A random wheel-of-fortune spin changes your estimate of how many African nations are in the UN. The spin was meaningless. The effect was real. Why?
19746 min read
If you collapse on a busy street, your chances of getting help may be worse than on a quiet one. Why does a crowd of witnesses make you less safe?
19688 min read
The less you know, the more confident you feel. The more you know, the more you see how much you don't. Why?
19996 min read
You do not need to know the classification to start exploring.
No background needed at any point. Suitable for younger readers.
The less you know, the more confident you feel. The more you know, the more you see how much you don't. Why?
19996 min read
Why does being attractive make you seem smarter, or sounding confident make you seem right — even when neither is true?
19208 min read
If anything can go wrong, will it? The saying is a joke — but the engineering principle behind it is dead serious.
19497 min read
Ordered sequences where each idea sets up the next.
Well known inside one field and almost nowhere else.
Richer people are happier than poorer people. Yet a whole country getting richer does not seem to get happier.
197423 min read
An onion carries five times more DNA than you do. A single-celled amoeba carries a hundred times more. Nobody expected that.
1971 (named), 2001 (renamed the C-value enigma)17 min read
Computers arrived in every office through the 1970s and 80s. Measured productivity did not move for two decades.
1987 (Solow's remark), debate ongoing17 min read
The same handful of problems keeps turning up in all of them.
The same questions keep resurfacing in new clothes.