Anchoring Effect
A random wheel-of-fortune spin changes your estimate of how many African nations are in the UN. The spin was meaningless. The effect was real. Why?
19746 min read
Era
20th Century
1900 – 2000
74 entriesFilter these further →
Beginner
Ages 8+, no background needed.
Bystander Effect
If you collapse on a busy street, your chances of getting help may be worse than on a quiet one. Why does a crowd of witnesses make you less safe?
19688 min read
Dunning-Kruger Effect
The less you know, the more confident you feel. The more you know, the more you see how much you don't. Why?
19996 min read
Halo Effect
Why does being attractive make you seem smarter, or sounding confident make you seem right — even when neither is true?
19208 min read
Hilbert's Grand Hotel
A hotel with infinitely many rooms is completely full. At two in the morning, one more guest arrives. The manager finds them a room.
1924 (lectures), 1947 (popularised)13 min read
Moore's Law
A pattern that held for fifty years: every two years, computers got twice as powerful for the same price. What happens when it stops?
19657 min read
Murphy's Law
If anything can go wrong, will it? The saying is a joke — but the engineering principle behind it is dead serious.
19497 min read
Parkinson's Law
Give yourself a week for a task that takes an hour, and it will take a week. Why does work expand to fill available time?
19556 min read
Placebo Effect
A sugar pill reliably reduces pain in clinical trials — measurably, not just subjectively. How does a fake treatment produce real healing?
19556 min read
Sunk Cost Fallacy
You paid for a concert ticket and now feel terrible. If you hadn't paid, you'd stay home. You paid, so you go. Why does a sunk cost change anything?
19857 min read
The Birthday Problem
How many people must be in a room before two of them probably share a birthday? The answer is far smaller than you expect.
1939 (first published), circulating from the 1920s14 min read
The Butterfly Effect
Can a butterfly in Brazil cause a tornado in Texas? Not by force — but by changing everything that follows.
1963 (discovery), 1972 (butterfly metaphor coined)7 min read
The Monty Hall Problem
Three doors, one car. The host opens a losing door and offers you the swap. Does it make any difference whether you take it?
1975 (posed), 1990 (made famous)9 min read
The Peter Principle
Why does every organisation seem to be run by people who are bad at their jobs? Because the good ones got promoted until they weren't.
19696 min read
The Prisoner's Dilemma
Two people can each do better by betraying the other — and end up worse off than if neither of them had.
195018 min read
Amara's Law
Every major technology is overhyped on arrival and underestimated a decade later. Why does intuition fail in the same direction twice?
19776 min read
Chesterton's Fence
You find a fence in the middle of a field with no obvious purpose. Remove it? Chesterton says no — and the reason reveals something about reform.
19297 min read
Cobra Effect
The British paid a bounty for dead cobras to reduce the snake population. When it ended, the population was higher than before. What went wrong?
19008 min read
Hanlon's Razor
They didn't do it to hurt you. Probably they just didn't think. How much does it matter?
19806 min read
Hawthorne Effect
Workers became more productive every time the researchers changed conditions — even when they changed them back. What was the actual cause?
1924–1932 (studies), 1958 (effect named)6 min read
Hofstadter's Law
It always takes longer than you think — and that's still true even after you account for the fact that it always takes longer than you think.
19796 min read
Ringelmann Effect
Add more people to a task and each person works harder, right? Experiments show the opposite. Why does individual effort fall as the team grows?
19136 min read
The Barber Paradox
The barber shaves every man in town who does not shave himself, and no one else. So who shaves the barber?
1918 (Russell's lectures); the story circulated earlier11 min read
The Coastline Paradox
How long is the coastline of Britain? The answer depends on how you measure it. As the ruler gets shorter, the answer grows without bound.
1951 (Richardson), 1967 (Mandelbrot)7 min read
The Friendship Paradox
Your friends have more friends than you do. So do mine. This is true for almost everybody, all at the same time.
199117 min read
The Abilene Paradox
Everyone at the table agreed to a trip that not one of them wanted to take. How does a group choose what every member is against?
197417 min read
Intermediate
Curious teenagers and general adult readers.
Goodhart's Law
The moment you measure something and start rewarding the number, the number stops telling you what it used to.
1975 (Goodhart's formulation), 1997 (Strathern's phrasing)14 min read
Pygmalion Effect
Can a teacher's expectation — with no basis in fact — make a student smarter? The data say yes. The mechanism is more unsettling than the result.
19687 min read
Schrödinger's Cat
A cat sealed in a box, neither alive nor dead until somebody looks. The story was invented to show the idea was absurd.
193514 min read
Simpson's Paradox
A treatment does better for men, and better for women, and worse for people. None of the arithmetic is wrong.
1903 (Yule), 1951 (Simpson), 1972 (named)20 min read
The Fermi Paradox
The universe is ancient, enormous, and full of ordinary stars much like ours. So where is everybody?
1950 (Fermi's remark), 1975 (Hart's argument)22 min read
The Grandfather Paradox
Travel back in time and stop your own grandparents from ever meeting. Then who was it that went back?
1943 (Barjavel's novel), with antecedents from the 1920s18 min read
The Paradox of Tolerance
A society that tolerates absolutely everything, including those working to end it, does not remain tolerant for long.
19458 min read
The Tragedy of the Commons
Every herder gains by putting one more animal on the shared field. The field is destroyed by people behaving reasonably.
196815 min read
The Twin Paradox
One twin flies away and comes home younger than the other. Yet each of them saw the other's clock running slow.
1905 (implicit in Einstein), 1911 (Langevin's traveller)20 min read
Benford's Law
Look at the first digit of every number in a newspaper. You'll see 1 far more often than 9 — and it is a mathematical law, not a coincidence.
19388 min read
Brooks's Law
A software project is six months late. You add more developers. Now it's eight months late. Why?
19756 min read
Conway's Law
Your software will look like your org chart. Not because you planned it, but because you couldn't plan it otherwise.
19685 min read
Dunbar's Number
You can maintain real relationships with about 150 people. Beyond that, a group becomes something different. Is this a law of human nature?
19927 min read
Flynn Effect
IQ scores rise 3 points per decade worldwide. If the tests measure intelligence, are we smarter? Or is something wrong with the tests?
19847 min read
Matthew Effect
Two equally talented people start. One gets a small early advantage. Decades later, the gap is enormous. Where did the extra distance come from?
19688 min read
Metcalfe's Law
Double the users of a network and the value quadruples. This simple mathematics is why some networks become monopolies and others die empty.
19806 min read
Moravec's Paradox
A computer beat the world chess champion in 1997. Getting one to pick up a cup it has not seen before is still hard.
198811 min read
The Boy or Girl Paradox
A family has two children and one of them is a boy. What are the odds the other is a girl? It depends on how you found out.
1959 (posed), 1961 (retracted in part)13 min read
The Ellsberg Paradox
You know exactly how many red balls there are, and nothing about how many are black. Does knowing more make a bet more attractive?
19617 min read
The Mpemba Effect
A pot of boiling water and a pot of cold water go into the same freezer. Which freezes first?
1963 (observed), 1969 (published)8 min read
The Paradox of Thrift
Every family starts saving more. The economy ends up with less saving. How can everyone doing the right thing produce the wrong outcome?
19367 min read
The Two Generals' Problem
Two armies must attack at the same moment. Any message can be lost, including the one confirming the last one arrived.
1975 (proved), 1978 (named)18 min read
Zipf's Law
The most common English word is twice as frequent as the second. Why does language obey the same mathematical law as city populations?
19357 min read
Berkson's Paradox
Two things with nothing whatever to do with each other can look strongly related — purely because of who ended up in the study.
194615 min read
Peto's Paradox
A whale has a thousand times more cells than you and lives longer. It should be riddled with cancer. It is not.
1975 (observation), 1977 (Peto's fuller statement)17 min read
The C-value Paradox
An onion carries five times more DNA than you do. A single-celled amoeba carries a hundred times more. Nobody expected that.
1971 (named), 2001 (renamed the C-value enigma)17 min read
The Easterlin Paradox
Richer people are happier than poorer people. Yet a whole country getting richer does not seem to get happier.
197423 min read
The Grelling-Nelson Paradox
Is the word "heterological" heterological? Either answer generates a contradiction.
19087 min read
The Tristram Shandy Paradox
A man writes his autobiography but keeps falling behind. If he had infinite time, would he ever catch up?
1759 (novel), 1903 (paradox formulated)8 min read
Advanced
Undergraduate level in the relevant field.
Russell's Paradox
Consider the set of all sets that do not contain themselves. Does that set contain itself? Either answer is wrong.
1901 (discovered), 1902 (letter to Frege), 1903 (published)19 min read
The Halting Problem
No program can ever be written that reliably tells you whether another program will finish running. This is not a limit of our cleverness.
193620 min read
Braess's Paradox
Add a new road to a congested city and every journey gets slower. Close the road again and the traffic speeds up.
196819 min read
Newcomb's Problem
The boxes are already filled. Does choosing one still change what is in them?
c. 1960 (posed), 1969 (published)10 min read
The Allais Paradox
Offered the same improvement in odds twice, most people take it once and refuse it the second time. Both choices feel obviously right.
1952 (posed at the Paris colloquium), 1953 (published)22 min read
The Byzantine Generals Problem
Several generals must attack together or be destroyed. They can only send messengers, and some of the generals are traitors.
198222 min read
The Two Envelopes Problem
One envelope holds twice as much money as the other. The arithmetic says swap — then says swap back, forever.
1953 (Littlewood, crediting Schrödinger), 1989 (envelope form)19 min read
The Unexpected Hanging Paradox
A prisoner is told he will hang next week, on a day he cannot possibly predict. He proves it cannot happen. It happens.
1943 (in circulation), 1948 (first in print)21 min read
Berry's Paradox
"The smallest number that cannot be described in fewer than twelve words." That description is eleven words long.
1906 (published by Russell, crediting Berry); communicated c. 190419 min read
Levinthal's Paradox
A protein has more possible shapes than the universe has atoms, yet it finds the right one in less than a thousandth of a second.
1968–196917 min read
The Ladder Paradox
A ladder too long to fit inside a barn fits inside it — and also does not — depending entirely on who is watching.
1905 (the physics), 1961 (first prominent published version)19 min read
The Productivity Paradox
Computers arrived in every office through the 1970s and 80s. Measured productivity did not move for two decades.
1987 (Solow's remark), debate ongoing17 min read
The Ross-Littlewood Paradox
You add ten balls and remove one, infinitely many times. At the end, the vase is empty. What happened to all the balls?
19887 min read
Expert
Graduate level or specialist readers.
Gödel's Incompleteness Theorems
In any system of arithmetic strong enough to be useful, there are true statements it can never prove. Including this one.
193125 min read
The Banach–Tarski Paradox
Cut a solid ball into five pieces, move them around, and you have two balls the same size as the first. Nothing was stretched.
192423 min read
Arrow's Impossibility Theorem
There is no fair way to turn what a group of people each want into what the group wants. This is not a complaint about politics. It is a theorem.
1950 (paper), 1951 (book), 1963 (corrected second edition)25 min read
The Black Hole Information Paradox
Physics insists information can never be destroyed. Black holes appear to destroy it. Both of those cannot be true.
1974/75 (Hawking radiation), 1976 (the paradox stated)24 min read
The EPR Paradox
Measure one particle here and you instantly know something about its partner light-years away. Einstein thought this proved physics was unfinished.
1935 (argument), 1964 (Bell's theorem), 2015 (loophole-free tests)21 min read
The FLP Impossibility Result
A handful of computers cannot be guaranteed to agree on a single value if even one of them might be slow. Not merely hard — impossible.
198523 min read