Moore's Law
A pattern that held for fifty years: every two years, computers got twice as powerful for the same price. What happens when it stops?
19657 min read
Domain
AI
Alignment, capability, and metrics that stop meaning what they measured.
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Goodhart's Law
The moment you measure something and start rewarding the number, the number stops telling you what it used to.
1975 (Goodhart's formulation), 1997 (Strathern's phrasing)14 min read
Amara's Law
Every major technology is overhyped on arrival and underestimated a decade later. Why does intuition fail in the same direction twice?
19776 min read
Metcalfe's Law
Double the users of a network and the value quadruples. This simple mathematics is why some networks become monopolies and others die empty.
19806 min read
Moravec's Paradox
A computer beat the world chess champion in 1997. Getting one to pick up a cup it has not seen before is still hard.
198811 min read
The Productivity Paradox
Computers arrived in every office through the 1970s and 80s. Measured productivity did not move for two decades.
1987 (Solow's remark), debate ongoing17 min read