The Allais Paradox
Offered the same improvement in odds twice, most people take it once and refuse it the second time. Both choices feel obviously right.
1952 (posed at the Paris colloquium), 1953 (published)22 min read
French mathematical economics
Maurice Allais
1911 – 2010
French economist, engineer and physicist, awarded the 1988 Nobel Memorial Prize for his work on market equilibrium and the efficient use of resources. Much of his most original work — on capital theory, on monetary dynamics, and on choice under risk — was published only in French and reached the Anglophone mainstream decades late. In 1952 he put the questionnaire now known as the Allais paradox to a room of leading decision theorists, and spent the following decades arguing that expected utility theory was not a defensible account of rational choice.